Can we predict the future hotspots for COVID-19 in MEXICO, INDIA AND IN lands
south of the equator?
I think the answer is yes.
(Get much More Information about Covid-19 and how to Prevent the next Pandemic at JeffTbowles.com )
The important factors to consider are
- The presence of mountain ranges (especially north-south ranges). (Can block D3 producing Sunshine)
- The months when RAINY SEASON OCCURS (Southern Mexico and India)
- Hours of annual sunshine (relates to populatioons Vitamin D3 status)
- The median age of the population (Production of Vitamin D3 in the skin is impaired in the elderly)
- The percentage of dark/darker-skinned individuals (Production of Vitamin D3 in the skin is impaired in darker-skinned individuals)
- Effect of the unknown “living near the water” factor (actually how much Vitamin D3 rich fish are eaten by the population)
How can we completely prevent the coming pandemic south of the equator? If everyone takes the sunbathing for 1/2 hour equivalent of Vitamin D3 or 20,00 IUs per day , then there will be no pandemic this winter south of the equator.
If massive supplementation is not implemented, the pandemic will get pretty bad and will peak at the end of August or in early September.
For a much more in depth analysis see my new book-
How to Stop the Next Panemic Before
18 Fascinating Stories and Articles
About Covid-19 and the Spanish Flu
Available at Amazon.com
So let’s start with a world map with the equator shown.
To predict future hotspots, lets first look for significant mountain ranges in South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand, and Indonesia.
Topopgraphic map of South America:
Well right off the bat we can see that the Andes mountains run all the way up and down thougb the middle of Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Chile an Western Argentina.
Argentina Ethnic groups
European (mostly Spanish and Italian descent) and mestizo (mixed European and Amerindian ancestry) 97.2%, Amerindian 2.4%, African 0.4% (2010 est.)
And Southern Chile can get quite cold with weak sun as it is far from the equator. Here is a picture of Santiago the capital of Chile, I was guessing there would be moutains in the picture before I even started looking for it>
Median Age of Chilean population (pretty young) :
Chile > Demographics. Median age: total: 34.4 years. male: 33.2 years. female: 35.6 years (2017 est.) Definition: This entry is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older.
Age structure of Chilean population:
0-14 years: 19.98% (male 1,827,657 /female 1,754,253)
15-24 years: 14.63% (male 1,337,663 /female 1,285,514)
25-54 years: 42.94% (male 3,851,775 /female 3,845,195)
55-64 years: 11.32% (male 957,872 /female 1,070,975)
65 years and over: 11.13% (male 836,489 /female 1,157,869) (2018 est.)
Hours of annual sunshine
Sunshine & Daylight Hours in Santiago, Chile
- Mean hours of sunshine in Santiago range from 3:02 daily in June to 10:23 daily in January.
- The longest day of the year is 14:13 long and the shortest day is 9:46 long.
- The longest day is 4:26 longer than the shortest day.
- There is an average of 2462 hours of sunlight per year (of a possible 4383)…
Total sunsine hours look pretty good.
Largest Ethnic Groups In Chile
|Rank||Self-Identified Ethnic Background||Share of Chilean Population|
So the bottom line is that Chile while looking like a good place for an outbnreak due to its proximity to tall N/S mountains
Also all habitable land in Chile looks likes it is close to the Pacific Ocean suggesting there might be a near the water effect that suppresses the virus….We will solve this mystery at the end of this book)
So. Overall the risk for a bad break out in Chile looks low as Chile has many factors arguing against a bad out break, Lots of sun hours, a young population, mostly non black opopulation, and the living by the water factor. It does have the mountain factor to offerst some of the good points.
Special areas to look out for would be Chilean nursing homes especially those with elderly black residents.
How about Brazil?
Mountains in Brazil
|Pico da Neblina||2,995||9,826||Serra do Imeri||Highest in Brazil; 2015 measurement, previous measurements of 3014 m (1966) and 2994 m (2004)|
|Pico 31 de Março||2,974||9,757||Serra do Imeri||Shared with Venezuela; 2015 measurement, previous measurements of 2992 m (1966) and 2973 m (2004)|
|Pico da Bandeira||2,891||9,485||Highest in Minas Gerais, Highest in the Brazilian Highlands|
|Pico do Cruzeiro||2,861||9,386||Unconfirmed elevation|
|Pico do Calçado||2,849||9,347|
|Pedra da Mina||2,798||9,180||Mantiqueira Mountains||Highest in São Paulo state|
|Pico das Agulhas Negras||2,791||9,157||Mantiqueira Mountains||Highest in Rio de Janeiro State|
|Pico do Cristal||2,770||9,088|
|Mount Roraima||2,734||8,970||Guiana Shield||Shared with Venezuela and Guyana – Border tripoint elevation|
|Pico dos Marins||2,420||7,940||Mantiqueira Mountains|
|Pico do Barbado||2,033||6,670||Highest in Bahia|
|Pico Paraná||1,877||6,158||Serra do Mar||Highest in Paraná|
|Morro da Boa Vista||1,827||5,994||Serra Geral||Highest in Santa Catarina|
|Morro da Igreja||1,822||5,978||Serra Geral|
|Morro das Antenas||1,750||5,741||Serra Geral|
|Monte Caburaí||1,465||4,806||– is the northernmost point of Brazil|
|Pico do Monte Negro||1,398||4,587||Highest in Rio Grande do Sul|
Largest Ethnic Groups In Brazil
|Rank||IBGE Ethnic Designation||Share of Brazilian Population in 2010 Census|
|1||Brancos (White Brazilians)||47.73%|
|2||Pardo (Combined European, Native, and African Ancestry)||43.13%|
|4||Amarelos (Asian Brazilian)||1.09%|
|5||Indigena (Indigenous Brazilian)||0.43%|
Age structure: Median Age 32.
0-14 years: 21.89% (male 23,310,437 /female 22,414,551)
15-24 years: 16.29% (male 17,254,084 /female 16,758,140)
25-54 years: 43.86% (male 45,449,158 /female 46,151,759)
55-64 years: 9.35% (male 9,229,665 /female 10,296,824)
65 years and over: 8.61% (male 7,666,845 /female 10,315,429) (2018 est.)
Things look pretty bad for Brazil based on the skin color on average being ratehr darker and elss able to make D3 in the winter sun.
Total population of All of Africa is only 1.29 billion. Less than the population of either China (1.38 billion) or India (1.36 billion)
Thabana Ntlenyana mountain in Lesotho, which reaches an elevation of 3,482 metres (11,424 ft), is the highest mountain in southern Africa. It can be reached from the Sani Pass from South Africa which involves a 1000m climb up one of the hardest 4WD passes in Africa (sharp hairpin bends and 1000m drops without barriers).
- The population density in Africa is 45 per Km2(117 people per mi2).
- The total land area is 29,648,481 Km2 (11,447,338 sq. miles)
- 8 %of the population is urban (587,737,793 people in 2019)
- The median age in Africa is 19.7 years!
Prediction: Southern Africa should be mostly free of the COVID-19 epidemic deaths due to its almost non-existent elderly population.However , with lots of black skin, its hard to say,there could be a lot of infections.
Tallest mountain Southern Australia
|South Australia||Mount Woodroffe||1,435||4,708|
Australia population by Age group
|Age||Both Sexes Population||Both Sexes (%)|
About 19% of Australia’s population is over 60 years old and at risk.
Australia Age structure and Population pyramid
Ethnic Background Of Australians
|Rank||Principal Ancestral Ethnicity or Nationality||Share of Australian Population|
The bottom line is we can probably expect a hot spot to occur in the north west mountainous part of Australia around which there there are many aboriginals living.
India is a speacial case
India is just above the equator in the Northern Hemisphere. thee is lots of dark skin in the country. However, the population Vitamin D3 levels afre not controlled by the typical 4 seasons, but rather by the sunny and rainy seasons. the rainy season in India is June through September, so expect to see a terrible epidemic in India that peaks in September at the end of the rainy season. UNLESS OF COURSE EVERYONE STARTS TAKING 10,000 (typical woman) TO 20,000 (typical man) IUS OF VITAMIN d3 PER DAY (BASED ON WEIGHT)
One Good factor is the age structure of India, mostly young>>
Also not too much in the way of mountains>>>
The worst outbreaks are likely to occur in the southernmost part of India where there is a dense population amngst the North/South mopuntain ramnge.
When is Rainy Season in Mexico?
See the map below- Covid=19 Infections and Deaths Likely to Be the Worst in the Rainy (red and orange ) areas of Mexico and the epuidemic will end in November 2020.